First Round Breakdown

L*kers-Thunder: The story here is going to be the defending champs vs the new kids on the block, as well as Durant vs Kobe. Both are okay storylines, but the fact that everyone knows the L*kers will win the series definitely takes away from the drama. I think it could be a slow start for the champs, as they've been resting players and playing very poorly, so the Thunder might be able to steal a game or two. But once the L*kers get warmed up, OKC will get a rude awakening of what basketball played at the very highest level is all about.

Mavs-Spurs: Two old rivals here. Two teams capable of getting to the Finals too. The Spurs had a strange year. In the beginning, they couldn't buy a victory against the league's elite and were flawless against the lower-tier teams. Then at the end of the year, it was the other way around. At times brilliant, at times beyond underwhelming. Meanwhile, the Mavs made a big deadline deal for Butler, Haywood, and Stevenson that probably makes them the most talented team in the West. Never have I been so conflicted on a 2-7 matchup, which is generally a mismatch. Mavs have the homecourt, but they haven't been that great at home. They also have the more talented team, but that team is made up primarily of jumpshooters. I honestly have no idea what to expect. I could see Mavs winning in 7 or sweeping the Spurs. I could see the Spurs winning in 7 or sweeping the Mavs. This is definitely the best first round series.


Suns-Blazers: This is the dream matchup for Portland. The Suns have struggled mightily against the Blazers' slow-down offense, losing 2 out of 3, with the one win being thoroughly in the control of the Portland Trailblazers for a vast majority of the game. But wait, the Blazers franchise player, its leader, its heart and soul, its late game assassin, Brandon Roy will sit out the entire series. Such as life as a Portland Trailblazer. Their season has been absolutely destroyed by injuries. Winning 50 games was nothing short of a miracle considering they lost 311 games to injury. Think about that. That is like 4 players missing the entire season. Can you imagine if before the season, someone pointed at 4 random players on a roster and those players would be out for the season? Wow. This feel-good story should end here though. The Suns are rolling and the Blazers are missing their best player. It could get seriously ugly. But Portland has done really well under adversity and when no one expected them to win, so I guess you never know.

Nuggets-Jazz: Nuggets have the homecourt advantage, won the season series, and is a terrific home team playing against a bad road team. But I just hate the way they finished out the season, and even more importantly, the fact George Karl won't be coaching. No playoff team needs his coaching and guidance more than the Nuggets. This is a wild, wild team that doesn't respond well when things go poorly. The Jazz are extremely disciplined and well coached. I see them pulling this thing out.

Cavs-Bulls: No series is more lopsided. I know Chicago pushed Boston to the brink last year in the first round, but the Cleveland Cavaliers are a different animal. They are deep, talented, play superb defense, and have that LeBron guy, who just had one of the best seasons in the last quarter century. Whether Shaq is back or not, I would be shocked if this goes past game 5.

Magic-Bobcats: Well, the Bobcats finally made it. Here's your reward: Dwight Howard and the defending Eastern Conference champion Orlando Magic. Not much of a reward, if you ask me. The Bobcats, like Philadelphia last year, could scare the Magic early. They have elite athletes and the frontcourt players to slow Superman down. Gerald Wallace can also finally showcase his gifts to the world. I don't think they'll be disappointed. He is big, skilled, athletic, a great defender, and an absurdly great rebounder. And even though the Cats haven't been here, their coach, Larry Brown, has. This is the eighth different NBA franchise he's led to the postseason. Having said all that, Charlotte has no shot whatsoever.


Hawks-Bucks: Easily the most yawn-inducing series. Not much history, no marquee players (sorry Joe Johnson), no Bogut, and neither team has a chance of getting to the NBA Finals. I do want to tell people to wake up on the Coach of the Year voting. Milwaukee lost Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, and Ramon Sessions in the summer, as well as Michael Redd to injury early in the season and later Andrew Bogut, both for done for the season. Their starting frontline is Carlos Delfino, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Kurt Thomas. Yet the team went 46-36. How Scott Skiles isn't considered a lock to win the award is beyond me. However, with Bogut's injury, it looks like the much more talented Atlanta Hawks will have its way with the Bucks.

Celtics-Heat: Probably the best first round series in the East, which is a little like being the highest paid person at Burger King. Boston started out looking like by far the best team in the NBA. After their win in Orlando on Christmas, they were 23-5. But after that hot 28 game start, they went just 27-27. Miami pretty quietly won just 3 less games than the C's, and they finished the year 18-4. The Celtics are just so much more talented and have homecourt, so I will say they barely pull it out. But I feel really bad about that pick.

Playoff Predictions

1st Round
West-
(1) Lakers over (8) Thunder in 6
(2) Mavs over (7) Spurs in 7
(3) Suns over (6) Blazers in 5
(5) Jazz over (4) Nuggets in 6

East-
(1) Cavs over (8) Bulls in 4
(2) Magic over (7) Bobcats in 6
(3) Hawks over (6) Bucks in 5
(4) Celtics over (5) Heat in 7

Conference Semi Finals
West-
(1) Lakers over (5) Jazz in 7
(2) Mavs over (3) Suns in 6

East-
(1) Cavs over (4) Celtics in 5
(2) Magic over (3) Hawks in 6

Conference Finals
West-
(2) Mavs over (1) Lakers in 6

East-
(1) Cavs over (2) Magic in 7

Finals
(1) Cavs over (2) Mavs in 6